There are several different approaches that astrobiologists are taking to answer the question Are we alone in the Universe?. These include:




The likelihood of us detecting a signal from another intelligent species depends on a number of factors. In 1961, Frank Drake developed an equation that breaks down the difficult question of estimating the number of communicating civilization in the Galaxy into smaller, more manageable pieces. The Drake Equation goes like this:
N = Rstar x fp x fe x fl x fi x fc x L
where
N is the number of communicating civilizations that currently exists in the Galaxy
Rstar is the rate of star formation for Sun-like stars in our Galaxy (~ 10 stars per year)
fp is the fraction of these stars that have planets around them (0.1-1.0)
fe is the fraction of planetary systems that contain Earth-like planets
fl is the fraction of habitable planets that support life
fi is the fraction of planets with life that contain intelligent life
fc is the fraction of planets with intelligent life that are communicating with radio signals
L is the lifetime of a communicating species (in years)
There is no right answer, but let's plug in some guesses and see what we get:
N = 10 x 0.5 x 0.2 x 1.0 x 0.1 x 1 x 10,000 = 1000
Here is an on-line calculator for the Drake Equation; plug in some numbers and see what you get!
Again, there is no right or wrong answer - many of these parameters are quite subjective. One thing we CAN tell is that we are relative newcomers to this field, having the capability for interstellar communication for just a few decades. This is a big needle-in-a-haystack problem.